European Neutrality is dying out

Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine has had another opposite effect of his stated intention to divide Europe: the four former neutrals – Finland, Sweden, Austria and Switzerland – are changing their traditional non-alignment policy. Irland might, too. Ukraine, Moldova but also a clear popular majority in Belarus want to become EU members to put their security cooperation with Europe on an institutional level.

Northern Europe as NATO-country

On a trip to Washington, leading politicians from Finland and Sweden have made it clear that both countries will join NATO in the near future. The example of Putin’s naked aggression has swept away years of historical tradition and the conviction of best contributing to European peace by not openly aligning itself with the Western defense alliance. Both will bring considerable fire power to the defense of the whole area of Northern Europe against any incursion by the Russian bear. Finland its legendary infantry who repeatedly beat back the Red Army in the past, Sweden its considerable navy in the Baltic Sea. Not the speak of gratly enhanced direct intelligence capacity by NATO along the 1000 miles long land border of Finland with Russia and over the Baltic Sea from the Swedish coast Together with the traditional NATO members Norway and Denmark, and the relatively newly minted three members Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, Northern Europe will consequently form a sturdy and reliable Northern-European pillar of the Western Defence Alliance. This will also render less threatening the Russian enclave Kaliningrad on the shores of the Baltic Sea. No wonder then, that the three Baltic states vigorously advocate the swift adhesion of its two Nordic neighbours.

Ireland

The lower part of the Emerald Island, traditionally neutral since the foundation of the Republic – ‘Neither (English) King nor (German) Kaiser’ – has heretofore felt pretty secure in England’s shadow and since the 2nd WW under the US nuclear umbrella. Its armed forces have atrophied. This might change, too under the impression of Russian aggression and the newly inflamed discussion within the EU on the necessity to raise its proper security policy profile. More so, should we indeed see the two Republics on the Island united in view of the not altogether unlikely demise of Great Britain and the subsequent demand by Brussels to do more for the continent’s defense.

Austria and Switzerland

To call both Austria and Switzerland neutral has been, at least since the end of the cold war, basically a misnomer. Both are solid Western European democracies much like their neighbors but who have heretofore for their security policy relied on both on NATO protection and their own armed forces. The latter are stronger in the Swiss case compared with Austria who did away with belligerence, much like Germany, after the disastrous experience in both World Wars. Yet the Ukraine example has driven home the realization even in those two somewhat complacent Alpine republics, that they would be lost on their own and that more is expected from them to contribute to European security. Austria of course is a member state of the EU and is expected to participate fully in future security policy arrangements by the Union. On first sight the (almost) full adoption of all EU sanctions against Russia by traditional neutral Switzerland has surprised. Not when you look closer as the opposite would have meant favoring Putin in creating a safe haven for Russian assets and also because a clear majority of the Swiss wanted to join the rest of the civilized world by clearly condemning Putin’s aggression. The real test for Swiss compliance will come however, once all fossil energy flows from Russia into Europe will be sanctioned as around 80% of the respective traders are domiciled in Switzerland.

Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus

These three countries, immediate neighbors of Russia will not, in the foreseeable future become NATO members even if Putin does not survive his Ukrainian folly. That is foreseeably included in President Biden’s few remaining red lines beyond which a global confrontation with Russia looms. However, Ukraine since 2020, Moldavia and a Belarus without Lukashenko in the future are or will likely be part of the Enhanced Opportunity Partners program of NATO. Which comes close to membership except for the crucial Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization stipulating that an attack on one, is an attack on all members.

Here is where the security policy side of the European Union comes in as a substitute. Ukraine and Moldova have already requested membership in the EU, which its regular June summit will likely accept by placing both countries in an official candidate category. In Belarus, a clear popular majority, as manifested on occasion of the last Presidential election, temporarily put down by Putin’s lackey Lukashenko with active help from the Kremlin, will want to do likewise. One of the side effects of Putin’s gradually more visible defeat in the Ukraine might well be regime change in Minsk once Russian armed might loses its deterrence capacity in Moskow’s immediate neighborhood.

Picture: FinnishGovernment